Commodities and energy in the polycrisis era: the Intesa Sanpaolo study
The study “Commodities and Energy in the Polycrisis Era” by the Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department describes price trends in the coming years for oil, natural gas, precious metals and industrials.
Trends are influenced by many recent crises, including the Covid-19 epidemic, distortions in world trade flows, the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and a world in rapid, costly transition.
Three main points emerge from the study “Commodities and Energy in the Polycrisis Era”:
- Shift from globalisation to a more pronounced regional growth in trade
- Geopolitical competition for control of critical materials and strategic logistical corridors, fuelled by an expanding demand for elements that are by definition finite
- Climate change, requiring a process of adaptation to new living and production conditions, complicated on a global scale by population growth and urbanisation trends
All this in a macroeconomic environment still characterised by above-target inflation, high interest rates and scarcity of raw materials, which also drives up their prices.
Oil is expected to be relatively stable in the coming years due to two key factors: continued supply control by OPEC+ and the slowdown in end demand.
In Europe, natural gas remained close to its lowest since 2021, thanks to storage around seasonal highs and a structural drop in consumption.
In the winter of 2024/25, bullish pressures on prices may intensify again due to the uncertainty about the development of Russian transit flows from Ukraine, owing to the seasonality of domestic consumption and PV generation.
Gold is expected to be guided to new highs by a cycle of monetary easing and persistent geopolitical risks. Demand is being driven by central banks, particularly the People's Bank of China, but bullion and coins have also grown.
Silver is volatile, but its trend is expected to correlate with that of gold.
Platinum and palladium have repriced strongly and are expected to rise in 2025 and 2026.
In the short term, the firm is cautious about non-ferrous metals, which could erase the gains recorded in Q2 over the summer.
Once the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the US presidential election is removed, industrial metals could be heading for a new super-cycle, i.e. a multi-year period of bullish pressure on the sector.
The forecasts of the study “Commodities and Energy in the Polycrisis Era” take account of the impact of long-term dynamics on financial and commodity markets and how they can be counteracted by technological innovation, government incentives and fiscal stimulus.
Last updated 2 July 2024 at 14:20:47
